Crisis and the new prophets. Intuition, Forecast, Reform
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International conference organized by Pierre Pénet, sociologist and former Paris IAS Fellow, as part of the D’Alembert Paris-Saclay / Paris IAS Chair, with the support of Paris-Saclay University.
This is an online event. Register to receive the connexion link (see Form at the bottom of the page).
Presentation
Prophecies have now become inescapable in the public debate. In recent years, they have generated considerable interest and debate among experts and policymakers in finance, environmental science and health policy. Self-proclaimed prophets (or individuals designated as such by third parties) produce alarmist declarations warning of an impending threat. Prophetic themes capture the popular imagination, arousing curiosity, incomprehension but also distrust. Some adhere to prophetic discourses, viewing them as a boon and a political lever to change mentalities. Others see them as a symptom of irrationality or obscurantism. If the prophetic speech surprises, challenges and sometimes disarms us, it is perhaps because the modern Era was thought to be immune to the eschatological discourses propagated during Antiquity and the Middle Ages. Contrary to expectations, the prophetic speech seems to thrive particularly well in our present time.
The objective of this symposium is to reflect on the prophetic speech, its modes of expression and reception and its transformative effects on societies. This event comes at a time of multiplying crises (financial crises, health and environmental disasters, not to mention the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic). Such adverse events and conditions has caused renewed interest among the general public and policymakers for the themes of risk forecasting and anticipatory knowledge. In academic research, prophets and prophecies are an emerging object of inquiry but available studies remain scattered across disciplinary lines. Research heterogeneity and the relative lack of communication between disciplines is detrimental to the cumulativity of knowledge. Reflecting the interdisciplinary tradition of the Paris Institute for Advanced Study, this symposium aims to advance a common analytical and methodological framework for studying prophecies and to make prophetic studies a specific domain of research.
Program
Thursday, December 10, 2020
09:30 - 10:00 Introduction
Saadi Lahlou (Social psychology, Director of the Paris Institute for Advanced Study)
Stéphanie Lacour (CNRS Research Director, Assistant Vice-President Social Sciences & Humanities of the University Paris-Saclay)
Pierre Pénet (Sociology, University of Geneva / Paris Institute for Advanced Study)
10:00 - 12:15
Session 1: Prophetic speech and imagination
Discussant: Frédéric Lebaron (Sociology, ENS Paris-Saclay)
Ariel Colonomos (Political science, CERI-SciencesPo)
« Deux paroles prophétiques : l’épidémiologue et l’économist »
Emmanuelle Danblon (Linguistics, université libre de Bruxelles)
« Une société a les prophètes qu’elle mérite »
Jean-Baptiste Fressoz (History, CRH-EHESS)
« Les racines historiques de la collapsologie »
14:00 - 16:15
Session 2: Return on experience: the prophets of the 2008 financial crisis
Discussants: Eric Monnet (Economics, EHESS, Paris School of Economics) and Isabelle Strauss-Kahn (former Banque de France and World Bank economist)
Steve Keen (Economics, University College London)
« Predicting the GFC: not prophecy, but removing blinkers »
Paul Jorion (Anthropology and Sociology, Lille Catholic University)
« Les 100 obstacles à sauter pour prévision correcte »
Ann Pettifor (Economics, Political Economy Research Centre at City, University of London)
« Cutting the diamond: how both ‘innocence’ and prolonged, deep and incisive analysis of a problem provides predictive power »
Marc Faber (financial analyst, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report)
« The Art of Contrary Thinking »
16:30 - 16:45
Closing words
Ariel Weil (Mayor of the Paris Centre arrondissement and Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors)
16:45 - 17:30
Keynote speaker
Jens Beckert (Sociology, director of the Max Planck Institute, Cologne)
«What makes a narrative credible? »
Friday, December 11, 2020
10:00 - 12:15
Session 3: Prophetic action
Discussant: Pierre Pénet (Sociology, university of Geneva / Paris Institute for Advanced Study)
Francis Chateauraynaud (Sociology, GSPR-EHESS)
« Ouvrir et fermer les futurs. Le pragmatisme sociologique et la critique de la prophétie »
Jean-Paul Engélibert (Comparative Literature, University Bordeaux-Montaigne)
« La littérature et la discordance des temps : satires, utopies, apocalypses »
Erik Swyngedouw (Geography, University of Manchester)
« The apocalypse is disappointing: the depoliticized deadlock of the climate change consensus »
Michaël Foessel (Philosophy, University of Burgundy and École Polytechnique)
« Prophétisme versus apocalypse »
14:00 - 16:15
Session 4 : Prophets and prophecies in historical perspective
Discussant: Pierre Pénet (sociologue, université de Genève / Institut d’études avancées)
Claudine Gauthier (Anthropology, University of Bordeaux IIAC-LAHIC)
« Parole prophétique et régimes de temporalité ? »
Sylvie Barnay (History, University of Lorraine)
« Le présent des prophéties mariales au XIXe siècle : une relecture du futur inaccompli du passé »
Lionel Obadia (Anthropology, University of Lyon 2)
« Glissements de la religion au politique et réciproquement : le cas du ‘prophétisme juif’ dans l’histoire longue et dans l’actualité récente »
Sylvain Piron (History, CRH-EHESS)
« L'Eglise médiévale comme institution prophétique »
16:30 - 16:45
Conclusion
Pierre Pénet (Sociology, University of Geneva / Paris Institute for Advanced Study)
Closing Words
Marie-Christine Lemardeley (Paris Deputy Mayor, in charge of higher education, student life and research)
This is an online event. Register to receive the connexion link (see Form below).
